Oscar Predix: Who Will/Should Win

OSCAR PREDIX: WHO WILL/SHOULD WIN

In the stacked 2007, predicting the Oscars will prove to be as easy as, say, picking my favorite Beatles song, but alas, it is a necessary evil in the world of the obsessive movie snob. Some are pretty obvious, some not so much. What will follow are my true predictions to who will win, and who I'd give it to if I had the single, only vote.

BEST PICTURE

WHAT WILL WIN:
No Country For Old Men. Yeah, There Will Be Blood was equally loved by the critics, but it's dark strangeness will put so many people off, as unforgettable as it is. Juno was the big-time box office hit, but the backlash against the film has been so hard, I can't see it coming out on top. With Michael Clayton and Atonement just being happy to be nominated, the stage has been set for No Country and the Coen brothers to get their gold statue.

WHAT SHOULD WIN:
No Country For Old Men. I can't think of a reason to describe why this is the film of the year which I haven't already said. Suffice to say, that if you saw it, there wouldn't be any discussion. Period.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

WHO WILL WIN:
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood. This is pretty locked up for the meticulous method actor. Other than Clooney's subtle turn in Michael Clayton, there is little to no competition.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Tommy Lee Jones, In The Valley Of Elah. The film is average, but Jones is outstanding. It's hard to pick him over Clooney or Day-Lewis, but what the decision comes down to is that Jones controls the dramatic emotion better than both of them. The simmering anger only explodes when it's supposed to, and for the rest of time, he keeps his cool.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

WHO WILL WIN:
Julie Christie, Away From Her. Christie, the English goddess, has been riding a wave of buzz since May when the film was released. Marion Cotillard is close behind her with her portrayal of Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose, and Ellen Page could surprise everyone by winning for her enormously popular performance in Juno. That said, it seems obvious that Christie will have the upper hand and walk away with her second Oscar.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Ellen Page, Juno. For anyone who actually reads my blog, you will know that this is a change of heart for me, as I've supported every single aspect of the film Away From Her. That said, no other actress nominated dominates like Page (no, not even Cotillard, who owes credit to her make-up, not her ability) in her respective film. She has strong wit, and real emotion. It's the performance that will be remembered the longest.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

WHO WILL WIN:
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men. This is just a straight lock. No explanation or analysis needed. Unless Assassination of Jesse James fans catch Casey Affleck fever, this is the most predictable category.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men. Every single characteristic of Bardem's Anton Chigurh is memorable: the stun gun, the oxygen tank, the haircut, the coin flip, "Friendo"--it all adds to what is already one of the greatest movie villains of all time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

WHO WILL WIN:
Ruby Dee, American Gangster. This is where things begin to get interesting. Every single nominated performance has a true shot here. Cate Blanchett was the early front-runner, for her take on Bob Dylan in I'm Not There, but the film's title can be considered a summation of how the general public felt about the movie. Then Amy Ryan literally swept all of the major critics awards as the irresponsible mom in Gone Baby Gone. Now, there are rumblings since Tilda Swinton won the BAFTA award for Michael Clayton. That said, I think the Academy will settle on giving it to Ruby Dee for what was basically an extended cameo in American Gangster, rewarding her for her lifetime achievement.

WHO SHOULD WIN
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton. Right from the time that she's introduced, Swinton's Karen Crowder is a ball of nerves. She practices her television speeches religiously, and plans her schemes with such meticulous detail, it is only more damaging to her as she watches it all fall apart. Watch for a killer showdown between Clooney and Swinton at the end of the film which brings everything to a incredibly satisfying conclusion.

BEST DIRECTOR

WHO WILL WIN
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men. It's fair to say that they've got this award more locked up than Best Picture, since they've won the DGA award, which is always a fair prediction. Paul Thomas Anderson was finally recognized by the Academy, and Julian Schnabel's magical vision made The Diving Bell and The Butterfly spectacular, but I don't see either surmounting the Coens here.

WHO SHOULD WIN
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly. This movie was made with such beautiful imagination and vision, and none of that would have been possible without the work of Schnabel. His chances seem low, with Diving Bell not being nominated for Best Picture, but one of the few things good about being snubbed, is that it never takes away from the beauty on the screen.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WHO WILL WIN:
Diablo Cody, Juno. In an outpouring of witty dialogue and heartwarming characters, cult-blogger Diablo Cody created the most beloved little movie of 2007. The script has little to no competition, as it has been cherished since the film's premiere at the Toronto Film Festival.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton. The script doesn't make you laugh or smile like Juno, but in the end, the effect is just as fulfilling. Gilroy has been a much-respected screenwriter for a very long time, but it isn't till now that he's getting the recognition that deserves. Truth is, Gilroy has probably the only slight chance of up-ending Cody at the ceremony.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

WHO WILL WIN:
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men. The Coens actually have one a previous Oscar for screen writing, when they won the 1996 award for Fargo. That said, this is the first time they took the "adapted" route. Also, many feel that awarding the Coens is a way to award the beloved Cormac McCarthy, who wrote the book on which the film is based.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men. I was tempted to say Paul Thomas Anderson, cause I love his movies so much, but the fact is this: There Will Be Blood's main weakness begins with it's screenplay. That, plus the Coen's reworking of Cormac McCarthy is uncanny, tense, and actually has some smatterings of humor.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

WHO WILL WIN:
Roger Deakins, No Country For Old Men. It only helps that Deakins' biggest competition is, well, himself for The Assassination of Jesse James. Robert Elswit's widescreened tunnel view for There Will Be Blood has a shot, as well as multiple winner Janusz Kaminski's brilliant work in The Diving Bell and The Butterfly. That said, Deakins has been an Oscar bridesmaid five times before, they'll give it to him this time.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Roger Deakins, but surprisingly, for The Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford. I just saw the film recently, and I was completely floored by the beauty of Deakins' work in it. The film itself is long-winded, but so very, very tranquil. Most of that credit goes to Deakins.

BEST EDITING

WHO WILL WIN:
Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Ultimatum. Of course, this movie does have the most edits, so it's got that going for it. All in all, this film relishes itself in it's own editing technique more than any other film nominated, which is why it's the front-runner, despite going up against films like There Will Be Blood and No Country.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Dylan Tichenor, There Will Be Blood. I'd love to see 'Roderick James' win for No Country, and watch the Coens "accept it on his behalf", but that's mostly for a laugh. Tichenor's job at slowly pulling together this deliberately-paced film is something that shouldn't go unnoticed.

BEST ART DIRECTION

WHO WILL WIN:
Sarah Greenwood, Atonement. This was a big, lofty picture, and films of that kind usually dominate awards like this. The recreation of Dunkirk, the beautiful Tallis estate, it's all there. And the Oscar's there too.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Jack Fisk, There Will Be Blood. Fisk does just as good of a job as Greenwood, but his job entitles him to do the exact opposite. While Atonement is sprawling and beautiful, Fisk creates a dismal dystopia from the 1920's. All the houses are creaking, but that giant oil well stands gloriously.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WHO WILL WIN:
Jacqueline Durran, Atonement. Keira Knightley's green dress has already become the most famous costume since Audrey Hepburn donned a black dress as Holly Golightley in Breakfast At Tiffany's. Sure, Elizabeth: The Golden Age recreates Elizabethan England, and Sweeney Todd's costumes add to the already morose characters, but none of them have that green dress.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Jacqueline Durran, Atonement. Did I mention that green dress? To be fair, the work in the film is balanced throughout, be it with the soldier's soiled attire, to the stark white nurse uniforms.

BEST MAKE-UP

WHO WILL WIN:
Jan Archibald, La Vie En Rose. I can't see the Academy honoring Norbit (the nomination alone was baffling), and the third Pirates of the Carribean always had a luke-warm following. So, that being said, Rose wins by default.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Jan Archibald, La Vie En Rose. I didn't see the other two films, and don't plan to (Do you? Didn't think so). To be fair though, Archibald's make-up is the real star of this film, concealing the gorgeous Marion Cotillard in the body of the brash Edith Piaf.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

WHO WILL WIN:
Dario Marianelli, Atonement. Combining the typewriter keys to the blistering music was a smart choice on Marianell's part. He lost the last time he was nominated for his much superior work in Pride & Prejudice, so he'll get it this time.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Dario Marianelli, Atonement. I liked all of the scores nominated very much, but Marianelli's work, in all of his films including this, seems to stick with me. Still humming it in my head.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

WHO WILL WIN:
"Falling Slowly" from Once. Enchanted may have stolen three of the five nominations, but that really does nothing for the film, except cancel all of the nominations out. They'll give it to the rarely recognized indie gem Once.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
"Falling Slowly" from Once. Come on, have you heard the song? If you have, you'll understand what I'm saying.

BEST SOUND/SOUND EDITING
(Connecting them, cause I believe they'll be won by the same guy)

WHO WILL WIN:
Kevin O' Connell, Transformers. Not that I know jack-crap about sound, but there is an interesting dynamic here. Nominee Kevin O'Connell has been nominated 19 times (NINETEEN!?!?!), and has yet to win one. He's like the Susan Lucci of the Oscars, except no one knows who he is. The Oscars like to give out these kind of back-patting awards, and I'll think they'll do here.

WHO SHOULD WIN:
Skip Lievsay, No Country For Old Men. Well, I just said that I know jack-crap about sound, so my opinion on the matter should be moot, but there are moments in No Country where the sound is used so well (Llewelyn waiting for Anton in the hotel room). Anything that makes me understand the concept of sound is what I think should be considered the winner.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WHO WILL/SHOULD WIN: Transformers. Haven't seen any of the three nominated films, but this one has giant cars changing shapes, while the other two have pirates (Pirates of the Carribean) and talking polar bears (The Golden Compass). I'll go with the morphing automobiles.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WHAT WILL WIN:
Ratatouille. I think Persepolis may have won over more critics, but Ratatouille did the impossible by making everyone fall in love with the idea of a rat cooking food for human beings (there are never any health issues addressed in the film).

WHAT SHOULD WIN:
Ratatouille. It's a rat that cooks, how cute is that?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

WHAT WILL WIN:
The Counterfeiters. Seeing as the three most popular foreign language films of the year (4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, and The Lives of Others) were either disqualified or used a year early, this Austrian film becomes the front-runner.

WHAT SHOULD WIN:
The Diving Bell and The Butterfly. Yeah, I know, that's cheating. But, hey, I doubt any of the five nominated films showcase as much innovation.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

WHAT WILL WIN:
No End In Sight. Michael Moore may be the most popular, though divisive, documentary filmmaker in the US, but his film Sicko was not nearly as applauded as this film which chronicles the mishaps after America's invasion of Iraq.

WHAT SHOULD WIN:
No End In Sight. It's another case of me not seeing any of the other films nominated, but I feel pretty good in my choice here. Charles Ferguson's film is truthful, and to be honest, very much needed for a country that tries to pretend that a war is not happening.