Thanksgiving Oscar Predictions

We're coming close to December. On December 3rd, The National Board of Review will give out their awards for the best films of the year and Oscar season will have officially kicked off. By that point, we'll be drowning in various critics' top ten lists and various organizations listing off nominations. Simply stated, we'll have less speculation at this point, and more solid predictions will arise. So, while we still can, less throw caution to the wind and make some (not so) educated guesses about how things will plan out when the Academy announces their nominations on January 25th. There have been very little changes in the last month or so. The King's Speech and The Social Network are still the two biggest Oscar sure things (at least as far as Best Picture goes), but soon Black Swan and 127 Hours will be heading toward general audiences soon. There are too many films (like Blue Valentine, Another Year, and Barney's Version) that are coming out in late December to January, so picking them is still pretty much a shot in the dark. But, since we still have no precursors to go on, I'm still going to take a shot and say they'll be in there in the long run. After all that, here's my Thanksgiving picks:

Best Actor

Robert Duvall, GET LOW

Colin Firth, THE KING'S SPEECH

James Franco, 127 HOURS

Ryan Goslong, BLUE VALENTINE

Mark Wahlberg, THE FIGHTER

There are two performances that I'm still clinging two, even though I have my reservations: Duvall and Wahlberg. I've seen Get Low and I know how unremarkable the performance and Duvall's performance is, but I still think there is a lot of good will developed between Duvall and the acting community in Hollywood. If he could win an Oscar for his sleepwalking performance in Tender Mercies, I think he has a good shot getting nominated here. That being said, there is always an old man slot in the Best Actor category, and this year it's between Duvall and Jeff Bridges' performance as Rooster Cogburn in True Grit. One of them will get nominated in 2010, but not both. With Wahlberg, I'm really going on the trailer for The Fighter, which look terribly uninspired (and Wahlberg seems to be absolutely dominated as an actor by Christian Bale). But people have been talking about how good Wahlberg could be in this film for so long, and sometimes people don't like to admit when they're wrong (evidenced by Angelina Jolie getting a nomination for the mediocre Changeling in 2008, while Sally Hawkins' excellence in Happy-Go-Lucky got snubbed - still haven't gotten over that). Firth and Franco both seem pretty cemented in their two spots, but that fifth spot is still uncertain. I'm giving it to Ryan Gosling for his seemingly stripped-down role in Blue Valentine, but I'm not confident in that pick whatsoever right now, and could easily be supplanted by other candidates. Other candidates: Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

Sally Hawkins, MADE IN DAGENHAM

Jennifer Lawrence, WINTER'S BONE

Natalie Portman, BLACK SWAN

Michelle Williams, BLUE VALENTINE

I guess I'm further proving that I still haven't gotten over Hawkins' snub in 2008 (Happy-Go-Lucky was one of the best films that year and she's basically the main reason why), because I'd like to think that the Academy still feels bad about it and are going to throw her a bone for her supposedly inspired performance in Made In Dagenham. She's far from a sure thing at the moment. There are only two of those at the moment: Annette Bening and Natalie Portman. People have been raving about Black Swan since its Venice Film Festival premiere, and Portman in particular. The same could be said about Annette Bening after The Kids Are All Right's modestly successful box office run this summer. The other three spots are really just a crapshoot. There's Hawkins, who I think will become more of a sure thing as we move forward (the film looks fantastic, despite the fact that it seems like prototypical Oscar fodder). Other than that, there are two modest performances in small, independent films. First is Michelle Williams, who is said to be incredible in Blue Valentine, but will anyone be able to see it with its December 31st release? Then there's 21-year-old Jennifer Lawrence, whose stunning work in Winter's Bone (which I've seen) has kept steam despite a modest July run in theaters. In a fair world, Lawrence would be a lock. Other candidates: Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (Category fraud? We'll get to that later); Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (who I'd put in the final five, if it were 2004 - but she's still has to prove something after the last few years of mediocrity).

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, THE FIGHTER

Sam Rockwell, CONVICTION

Mark Ruffalo, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

Geoffrey Rush, THE KING'S SPEECH

Justin Timberlake, THE SOCIAL NETWORK

It's a bit disappointing that Mark Ruffalo's fantastic performance in The Kids Are All Right has been losing nomination momentum, but I still have faith that it'll work out in the end. Other than that, only Rush and Bale feel like safe bets in what is probably the most unpredictable of the acting categories. For the final two spots, I decided to side with two more unconventional predictions (though, with such lack of clarity in this spot, I don't think any pick should be considered to controversial). I'm in the minority with thinking that Justin Timberlake has a better shot for a supporting actor nomination than his Social Network co-star Andrew Garfield. It's certainly a more showy performance and you can't overstate Timberlake's overall popularity (will not be surprised at all if I end up being wrong about this, though). Then, there's Sam Rockwell heavily admired performance in Conviction as the wrongfully jailed brother to Hilary Swank's hard-nosed attorney. The film itself got a lukewarm response, but there was nothing but praise for Rockwell. Other candidates: Ed Harris, The Way Back; Bill Murray, Get Low; Bob Hoskins, Made In Dagenham. Yeah, it's a weak year.

Best Supporting Actress

Helena Bonham-Carter, THE KING'S SPEECH

Lesley Manville, ANOTHER YEAR

Julianne Moore, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

Miranda Richardson, MADE IN DAGENHAM

Diane Wiest, RABBIT HOLE

I'm taking a bit of a leap here, thinking that Moore and Manville (two Best Actress candidates) will hop over to the categories that they have a better shot in. Moore is fantastic (and she is a co-lead, not supporting), and I feel like people are going to find a way to get her nominated - but there's too much of a logjam in the lead category. I haven't seen Another Year (though it's #2 on my list of anticipated 2010 films - if you care), but I've heard that Manville is only a lead in terms of screentime, but is not the film's main star or protagonist. It's a flimsy line, obviously, but I'm exploiting it. The other three are simply obvious choices; three famous actresses in particularly bait-y roles. Richardson and Wiest are two veteran performers (of course, Wiest has already a two-time winner in this category) who are getting great marks for their turns. There hasn't been that much said yet of Bonham-Carter in The King's Speech, but if the film strikes gold on nomination morning like everyone expects, she's just popular enough to get a generous sweep into a nomination (think Alan Alda's puzzling nomination for The Aviator). Other candidates: Rosamund Pike, Made In Dagenham (might bump out Richardson); Amy Adams or Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Jackie Weaver, Animal Kingdom.

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, BLACK SWAN

Danny Boyle, 127 HOURS

David Fincher, THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Tom Hooper, THE KING'S SPEECH

Christopher Nolan, INCEPTION

When in doubt, just pick the five most talked about films and pick the directors. That's basically what I did here, trying to balance out the directors who are helped by the film (definitely Hooper and, to a point, Nolan) and the great autuers who've already made names for themselves (the other three). The one limb that I'm going out on: all five are (relatively) young guys and only Boyle has won one before. Usually, Oscar doesn't want to spend too much in uncharted territory and nominating both Aronofsky and Fincher in the same year seems a little good to be true (the only time Fincher ever got a bone was for the atrocious Curious Case of Benjamin Button). But I'm going to stick with them. The only one that gives me some trepidation is Tom Hooper, who is a relative unknown for The King's Speech, and it feels much more like an "actor's movie". Not that filmmakers shouldn't get nominated for making performance-based films, but other than Mike Leigh, when has that ever happened? Other candidates: Mike Leigh (hey now!), Another Year; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right; David O. Russell, The Fighter.

Best Picture

127 Hours

Another Year

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

Made In Dagenham

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

If I haven't made it obvious enough already: I've almost completely lost faith in the idea of The Fighter being a great film, but I still think it could make a strong run at some Oscar nominations (after The Blind Side debacle last year, I guess nothing is impossible). As for everything else, the only big leaps I'm making is Made In Dagenham making the cut over more critically acclaimed films like Winter's Bone or heavily-hyped Christmas releases like True Grit (I adore the Coen Brothers, but the original John Wayne film was horrendous, so my expectations have been lowered quite a bit because of that). Black Swan is on thinner ice then I'd like, but I would find it hard for the Academy to snub it in a category that is now ten spots wide and Another Year should make the list based on Mike Leigh's reputation alone. The easiest choices: The Social Network, 127 Hours, and The King's Speech. They can be considered retroactive locks pretty much. Then there's the tenth spot, which we've learned from last year will probably be reserved for the Best Animated Film. Toy Story 3 has been the greatest film of 2010 so far (still have so much left to see in only one month), and if it's Best Picture status isn't considered cemented at this point, it would be a travesty. Other Candidates: The Way Back; Rabbit Hole.

Here's the rest of my predix (w/out exhaustive commentary). Enjoy!

Best Original Screenplay

Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumber, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

Andres Heinz and Mark Heyman & John Mclaughlin, BLACK SWAN

Mike Leigh, ANOTHER YEAR

Christopher Nolan, INCEPTION

David Seidler, THE KING’S SPEECH

Best Adapted Screenplay

David Lindsay-Abaire, RABBIT HOLE

Michael Arndt, TOY STORY 3

Simon Beaufoy & Danny Boyle, 127 HOURS

Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, WINTER’S BONE

Aaron Sorkin, THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Best Cinematography

Jeff Cronenweth, THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Matthew Libatique, BLACK SWAN

Anthony Dod Mantle & Enrique Chediak, 127 HOURS

Wally Pfister, INCEPTION

Eduord Serra, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART I

Best Art Direction

Stuart Craig, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART I

Guy Dyas, INCEPTION

Jess Gonchor, TRUE GRIT

Kalina Ivanov, THE CONSPIRATOR

Eve Stewart, THE KING’S SPEECH

Best Editing

Tariq Anwar, THE KING’S SPEECH

Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall, THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Jon Harris, 127 HOURS

Lee Smith, INCEPTION

Andrew Weisblum, BLACK SWAN

Best Costume Design

Coleen Atwood, ALICE IN WONDERLAND

Jenney Beavan, THE KING’S SPEECH

Louise Stjernsward, MADE IN DAGENHAM

Janty Yates, ROBIN HOOD

Mary Zophres, TRUE GRIT

Best Score

Carter Burwell, TRUE GRIT

Alexandre Desplat, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART I

John Powell, HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON

Gustavo Santaoalla, BIUTIFUL

Hans Zimmer, INCEPTION

Best Visual Effects

Alice In Wonderland

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part I

Inception

Iron Man 2

Tron: Legacy

Best Make-Up

Alice In Wonderland

Black Swan

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part I

Best Animated Feature

How To Train Your Dragon

The Illusionist

Toy Story 3