Final 2010 Oscar Predictions

Official Oscar Nominations will be announced bright and early on Tuesday morning, and with that comes the final nomination predictions on this blog. What does it mean to correctly predict those nominated in each category. Absolutely nothing. But what does it matter at this point. It's all good fun, like picking which team you'd like to win the Super Bowl. As I do every year, I'll try to supply each category with at least one wild card choice because what's the fun of having the same choices as everyone else does? Oscar rarely goes chalk, so you might as well have fun trying to guess which surprises there may be. So, without further ado, here are my picks:





BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, TRUE GRIT
Jesse Eisenberg, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Colin Firth, THE KING'S SPEECH
James Franco, 127 HOURS
Ryan Gosling, BLUE VALENTINE

I'm sticking to my guns: the Academy will not nominate two old men in Westerns, even if they are as legendary as Duvall and Bridges. Earlier, I was sticking with Robert Duvall's overall dull work in the overall dull Get Low, but since then, True Grit has turned into the highest grossing Western in what seems like decades (not to mention it is certainly the highest grossing film within the filmography of the Coen Brothers), so I'm going to go with Jeff Bridges rebirth of Rooster Cogburn. With that open spot, I'm predicting (hoping) that Ryan Gosling's brilliant performance in Blue Valentine gets to sneak into the top five. Eisenberg has become a lock over the last few weeks as The Social Network has dominated all precursor awards, while Franco and Firth have been sure things for months. Other possible spoilers: Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version; Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Jennifer Lawrence, WINTER'S BONE
Julianne Moore, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Natalie Portman, BLACK SWAN
Michelle Williams, BLUE VALENTINE

I know, I know. You'll say that I've let my Julianne Moore obsession blind me. Well, that's true - in a way. Lesley Manville's performance in Mike Leigh's Another Year was a hot commodity ever since the film premiered at Cannes in March, but a lukewarm box office showing (not helped by a puzzling release schedule - still haven't gotten a chance to see the film) has really derailed her candidacy. Nicole Kidman's work in Rabbit Hole has consistently been recognized throughout the season, but that film has also had an underwhelming commercial showing. I would not be surprised if Julianne Moore, every bit as good in the film as Bening, gets her fifth career nomination here. Portman and Bening, both Golden Globe winners, are certified locks now, and Jennifer Lawrence has surprisingly sustained her awards attention this late in the game - which means she's built up good will, so I feel she's safe. Michelle Williams isn't a slam dunk (though she should be), but if I'm considering Manville and Kidman last minute scratches, then she should easily take the fifth spot. A few long shots that might spoil the party: Tilda Swinton, I Am Love; Noomi Rapace, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo; Hilary Swank, Conviction.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, THE FIGHTER
Andre Garfield, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Jeremy Renner, THE TOWN
Mark Ruffalo, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Geoffrey Rush, THE KING'S SPEECH

This is the easiest category to predict, I feel. Even the winner seems obvious at this point. Since the beginning of awards season, Christian Bale has won close to every award for his portrayal of crack-addicted Dickie Ecklund, brother and trainer of boxer Mickey Ward, in The Fighter. Mark Ruffalo's astounding work as the free-love sperm donor in The Kids Are All Right may be dangling dangerously on the fence, but they couldn't possibly live with themselves if they didn't nominate that great performance, could they? I say he's still in (hopefully). Renner and Garfield both garnered unexpected traction once their respective films became commercial/critical smashes. As for Rush, his fantastic speech therapist in The King's Speech is the only thing standing in the way between Bale and his first Oscar. He likely won't come out with the win, but Rush will definitely get the nomination. Additional possible challengers: Justin Timberlake, The Social Network; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, THE FIGHTER
Helena Bonham-Carter, THE KING'S SPEECH
Melissa Leo, THE FIGHTER
Hailee Steinfeld, TRUE GRIT
Jacki Weaver, ANIMAL KINGDOM

Based on things I've heard people say, if you've actually seen Animal Kingdom, then Jacki Weaver should be a slam dunk. But most people haven't - including me, but I have it coming soon in my Netflix queue. I'm gonna say her loyal supporters give her enough to sneak her in. Then there's the curious case of Hailee Steinfeld, who is the main character in True Grit, in almost every scene, yet she's being campaigned as "supporting". Hmmm. Well, she is very good in the film, so I think that she's in, but the level of category fraud here is pretty astronomical (all-time category fraud: newcomer Timothy Hutton as the protagonist in Ordinary People wins Best Supporting actor - pretty shameless). The two Fighter girls are locked into the top five and deservedly so, and Bonham-Carter's charming performance in The King's Speech has seemed like a lock for months, despite not really winning any of the precursor awards (it helps her, though, that The King's Speech is peaking at the moment). Still have a (long) shot: Mila Kunis or Barbara Herschey in Black Swan; Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole.

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, BLACK SWAN
David Fincher, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Tom Hooper, THE KING'S SPEECH
Christopher Nolan, INCEPTION
David O. Russell, THE FIGHTER

I was sticking with Danny Boyle's directorial work for a long time in 127 Hours, but the film has faded quickly, and since many were turned off by Boyle's showiness to begin with, I'm going to have to leave him off this late in the game. Thanks to The Fighter taking off in December, David O. Russell has a cozy spot in the top five. The other four seem relatively safe, and I feel confident that this will be the five names announced tomorrow morning. The only one who may be slightly vulnerable is Nolan who, in a post Dark Knight universe, is always at risk with being left as a bridesmaid on nominations morning. Other candidates: Debra Granik, Winter's Bone; Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer; and (duh) The Coen Brothers, True Grit.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Derek Cianfrance, BLUE VALENTINE
Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumber, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Christopher Nolan, INCEPTION
David Seidler, THE KING'S SPEECH
Scott Silver and Paul Tamasay & Eric Johnson (& Keith Dorrinton - story), THE FIGHTER

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Michael Arndt, TOY STORY 3
Simon Beaufoy & Danny Boyle, 127 HOURS
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, TRUE GRIT
Debra Granik & Anne Rosselini, WINTER'S BONE
Aaron Sorkin, THE SOCIAL NETWORK

As you may have noticed, I'm predicting a surprisingly nice pick-up for Blue Valentine on nominations morning. As much as I love Black Swan, its screenplay is its weakest point and I see it being dropped from the top five, and Derek Cianfrance's script manages to slip in. Inversely, I'm seeing a rather disappointing turnout for 127 Hours, though I do think it's clever, limited script will get recognition. The rest of the nominations feel pretty safe to me. In Original, Mike Leigh's Another Year or the Austrailian Animal Kingdom could be a possible spoiler. As for adapted, the race to lose to Aaron Sorkin could possibly be joined by Roman Polanski's contemporary film noir The Ghost Writer or David Lindsay-Abaire's script for the severely under-appreciated Rabbit Hole.

BEST PICTURE
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

So, yes, I am saying that the long shot Blue Valentine will make it onto the top ten. I see 127 Hours falling out, and with that I think the small, brilliant film from Derek Cianfrance will be able to sneak in. Most people have been claiming that The Town will take that open spot, but perhaps its my own ambivalence toward that film that ceases me from including it. Having ten nominations leaves the door open for mediocre crowd pleasers to make it in, which is what happened last year when The Blind Side was able to endear Academy members enough to a shocking nomination. That could happen again with The Town (though I'll admit that it's head-and-shoulders a better film than The Blind Side is), but I'm holding out hope. The rest of the nominations are somewhat predictable. True Grit's surprise commercial success has vaulted it into the picture, and Winter's Bone surprising endurance despite a small release back in July has seemed to have worked. But, I mean, The Social Network is going to win anyway, right? Well, the Producer's Guild awarding The King's Speech might have thrown us a curve ball.




Here are the rest of the categories:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Danny Cohen, THE KING'S SPEECH
Jeff Cronenweth, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Roger Deakins, TRUE GRIT
Matthew Libatique, BLACK SWAN
Wally Pfister, INCEPTION

BEST ART DIRECTION
Guy Dyas, INCEPTION
Dante Ferretti, SHUTTER ISLAND
Jess Goncher, TRUE GRIT
Eve Stewart, THE KING'S SPEECH
Robert Stromberg, ALICE IN WONDERLAND

BEST EDITING
Tariq Anwar, THE KING'S SPEECH
Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Jon Harris, 127 HOURS
Lee Smith, INCEPTION
Andrew Weisblum, BLACK SWAN

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Coleen Atwood, ALICE IN WONDERLAND
Jenny Beavan, THE KING'S SPEECH
Louise Stjernward, MADE IN DAGENHAM
Amy Westscott, BLACK SWAN
Mary Zophres, TRUE GRIT

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice In Wonderland
Harry Potter and The Deathly Gallows Part I
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron: Legacy

BEST MAKE-UP
Alice In Wonderland
True Grit
The Wolf Man

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART I
Alexandre Desplat, THE KING'S SPEECH
John Powell, HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Hans Zimmer, INCEPTION

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from BURLESQUE
"Coming Home" from COUNTRY STRONG
"Sticks and Stones" from HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
"We Belong Together" TOY STORY 3
"Shine" from WAITING FOR 'SUPERMAN'

BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit

BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy
True Grit

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
Even The Rain (Spain)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Sptzer (dir. Alex Gibney)
Exit Through The Giftshop (dir. Banksy)
Inside Job (dir. Charles Ferguson)
Restrepo (dir. Tim Hetherington & Sebastian Junger)
Waiting for 'Superman' (dir. Davis Guggenheim)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

I could waste your time trying to predict categories the shorts category, but seeing as the only "finalist" that I've actually seen in all three of the categories is the animated Day and Night, I don't want to be silly and just post guesswork. Lord knows I already feel ridiculous predicting the two sound categories. Here's to nominations morning!