2008: Year In Movies (Part II: Final Oscar Predictions)

2008:YEAR IN MOVIES
PART II: FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Alright, I'll finally admit that The Dark Knight does have a very good chance of getting onto the Best Picture shortlist (especially since most of these December releases have been very underwhelming), but I think the fact that nearly nobody is seeing Frost/Nixon will eventually hurt its chances, though everybody seems to think of it as somewhat as a lock. Benjamin Button, Milk, and Slumdog have nothing to worry about, I don't think, but I think that with Frost/Nixon on such shaky ground, I choose WALL-E the sweetest, most beautiful film of the year to get recognized here (yeah, this is mostly wishful thinking, but whatever).

Best Director

Darron Aronofsky, THE WRESTLER
Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
David Fincher, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Christopher Nolan, THE DARK KNIGHT
Gus Van Sant, MILK

Boyle has won nearly every award he can win for directing Slumdog Millionaire so he seems pretty safe, and based of Benjamin Button's grandiose scale alone, Fincher shouldn't have to worry neither. Even if The Dark Knight doesn't pull off a Best Picture nomination, it would be criminal if they didn't recognize Nolan for his work on the film, so he's pretty solid, and Gus Van Sant has actually had two acclaimed movies this year (with Paranoid Park as well), and I'm sure the Academy will want reward him for the prolificity. The last spot comes down to Darron Aronofsky's bare-bone style in The Wrestler and Ron Howard's incredibly well-executed work in Frost/Nixon. Again, I see Frost/Nixon's lack of commercial success hurting it, and Aronofsky pulls a semi-surprise with the nom.

Best Actor

Clint Eastwood, GRAN TORINO
Richard Jenkins, THE VISITOR
Frank Langella, FROST/NIXON
Sean Penn, MILK
Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER

Penn, Rourke, and Langella, I feel, have absolutely nothing to worry about, but those last two spots can really go to a number of people. There's Clint's final performance (or so he says) in Gran Torino, Leonardo DiCaprio's impressive work in Revolutionary Road, Brad Pitt's metamorphasis as Benjamin Button in Benjamin Button, or little Richard Jenkins in that little indie gem: The Visitor. I feel people are really rooting for Jenkins here, and he will walk away with a nomination, and the sentamentality behind "Clint's last performance", will help him onto the shortlist. As always, DiCaprio suffers from "great performance, wrong year", but though Pitt is picking up traction, his vapidness as the film's emotional source will turn enough people off.

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Sally Hawkins, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
Melissa Leo, FROZEN RIVER
Meryl Streep, DOUBT
Kate Winslet, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

Like Best Actor, there are three who really shouldn't have to worry about getting in: Hathaway, Streep, and Winslet. This category is even more of a hodge-podge than the Best Actor category, as Oscar precursers have been all over the place this season. There's the critical darlings: Sally Hawkins' overjoyed performance in Happy-Go-Lucky and Melissa Leo's haggard, brilliant work in Frozen River. Then, there are the movie stars with Kristen Scott-Thomas in the French film I've Loved You So Long and Angelina Jolie's work of melodrama Changeling. Again, wishful thinking makes me think that they'll go for Leo and Hawkins despite their lack of starpower.

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, MILK
Robert Downey Jr., TROPIC THUNDER
Philip Seymour Hoffman, DOUBT
Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT
Dev Patel, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

This category can be summed up simply: Heath Ledger, and everybody else. I'm not sure if he'll win but there is no way that they can't nominate him. That being said, both Downey Jr. and Brolin seem pretty secure here. Downey Jr. has the benefit of being in Iron Man earlier. I think Hoffman is on a lot shakier ground than most people think he is in, but for now, I think he's in. Which leaves one spot which could go to James Franco's incredibly delicate performance as the lover in Milk, or Michael Shannon's crazy but honest character in Revolutionary Road. I think it goes to the youngster Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire, despite the extreme category fraud. They'll try to find a way to acknowledge this film some how in the acting categories.

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis, DOUBT
Taraji P. Henson, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Marisa Tomei, THE WRESTLER
Kate Winslet, THE READER

Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis have been sucking up all of the attention in this category so far, so they seem like safe bets. If I'm going to believe that they will leave out Brad Pitt, I have to at least believe that they'll go for the soulful performance from Benjamin Button, from Taraji P. Henson as Benjamin's mother. In another act of terrible character fraud, Kate Winslet seems to be on a streamline toward a double-nomination year, as she gets recognized for The Reader (if she loses both, she could tie Deborah Kerr for most losses without a win for an actress). The last spot can go to a handful of indie performances: Debra Winger and Rosemary DeWitt from Rachel Getting Married were both great and in the running, while Amy Adams could also get recognition for her performance in Doubt. I think they'll go for Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler.

Best Original Screenplay

Dustin Lance Black, MILK
Jenny Lumet, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Martin McDonaugh, IN BRUGES
Robert D. Siegal, THE WRESTLER
Andrew Stanton, WALL-E

This is a bit of an empty category this year in many ways, as most of the major best picture contenders are delegated to the adapted section. Dustin Lance Black's Milk screenplay seems to be the closest thing to a lock in the category, as well as Jenny Lumet (Sidney's daughter) for her wonderful Rachel Getting Married script. It would be criminal if Andrew Stanton wasn't nominated for the brilliant WALL-E screenplay, despite its lack of dialogue. There are a number of screenplays in the running, including Thomas McCarthy's The Visitor, Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky and the all-time leader in screenwriting nominations: Woody Allen for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. In the end, I say they go with Robert D. Siegal's work on The Wrestler and Martin McDonaugh's wonderful, wordy script for In Bruges.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Simon Beaufoy, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
David Hare, THE READER
Peter Morgan, FROST/NIXON
Eric Roth, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
John Patrick Shanley, DOUBT

A pretty loaded slate here, and with the exception of The Reader, its a pretty formidable one as well. Slumdog Millionaire and Benjamin Button will have no trouble getting nominated here, and I can't see a situation in which John Patrick Shanley doesn't get nominated for a screenplay which borrows most of the parts from his original Tony-winning play. Peter Morgan's script for Frost/Nixon is excellent and the film's pedigree can help Morgan win his second Oscar nomination. Either Jonathan Nolan's Dark Knight screenplay or Justin Haythe's script for Revolutionary Road has a shot, but I think the Academy will go a little more literary and conventional with the Nazi drama, The Reader.

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Anthony Dod Mantle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Claudio Miranda, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Wally Pfister, THE DARK KNIGHT
Mandy Walker, AUSTRAILIA

Some thing tells me Australia has a real shot here, while Roger Deakins will probably get nominated once again (how has he not won yet?).

Best Art Direction

Briggite Broch, THE READER
Donald Graham Burt, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Nathan Crowley, THE DARK KNIGHT
Michael Corneblith, FROST/NIXON
Catherine Martin, AUSTRAILIA

Austrailia and Frost/Nixon make a semi-surprising splash and get recognition here.

Best Editing

Chris Dickens, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Matt Chesse & Richard Peirson, QUANTOM OF SOLACE
Daniel P. Hill & Mike Hill, FROST/NIXON
Elliot Graham & Gis Van Sant, MILK
Lee Smith, THE DARK KNIGHT

Well, Quantom of Solace certainly has the most cuts, and they seem to make that more of a factor most of the time, than actual quality editing.

Best Costume Design

Lindy Hemming, THE DARK KNIGHT
Catherine Martin, AUSTRAILIA
Michael O'Connor, THE DUCHESS
Ann Roth, THE READER
Jacqueline West, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

If I'm Jacqueline West, I'm still peeved about losing last year to the lady from Elizabeth: The Golden Age. The Duchess's sole recognition should come here.

Best Visual Effects

Iron Man
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WALL-E

Will they count the effects in an animated film? Hope so.

Best Make-Up

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Synecdoche, New York

Synecdoche and Benjamin Button both take aging make-up to the extreme, but both use it beautifully. Both should get recognized.

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Danny Elfman, MILK
James Newton Howard, THE DARK KNIGHT
Thomas Newman, WALL-E
Hans Zimmer, FROST/NIXON

Kind of a Best Picture mish-mash here, I'm never good at predicting this category.

Best Original Song

"I Thought I Lost You" from BOLT
"Rock Me, Sexy Jesus" from HAMLET 2
"Little Person" from SYNECDOCHE, NEW YORK
"Down To Earth" from WALL-E
"The Wrestler" from THE WRESTLER

The Wrestler, Bolt and WALL-E nominations seem like locks, and the other two are just personal preferences.

Best Sound Mixing/Editing

Austrailia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Iron Man
Quantom of Solace
WALL-E

These categories rarely differ so it could give me a better average if I just match them up.

Best Foreign-Language Film

Last Stop 157 (Brazil)
The Class (France)
Waltz With Bashir (Israel)
Gomorra (Italy)
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex (Germany)

I think Waltz With Bashir gets its nomination here, instead of animated. It has a better shot here anyway.

Best Documentary

Encounters at the End of the World (Wernor Herzog)
I.O.U.S.A. (Patrick Creadon)
Man On Wire (James Marsh)
Standard Operating Procedure (Errol Morris)
Trouble The Water (Carl Deal & Tia Lessin)

Trouble The Water is the hot indie, but Man On Wire has literally had a titanic sweep in the precursors so far.

Best Animated Film

Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Well, if my wishful thinking doesn't really work out in the Best Picture category, we at least know that WALL-E won't have any trouble in this category.