Fall Oscar Predix (That Actually Matter)

With the passing of the festival season, our views of what films may or may not be courting Oscars in February are a little clearer. Films like Precious and The Hurt Locker (Yay!) have certainly grown in stature, while others are either sputtering toward the finish line (Avatar) or moving to the next year, altogether (Green Zone, Biutiful). Not that a whole lot has changed, really, just become more defined. And with that, I will showcase my latest picks:

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, UP IN THE AIR
Matt Damon, THE INFORMANT!
Colin Firth, A SINGLE MAN
Morgan Freeman, INVICTUS
Viggo Mortenson, THE ROAD

Lately, there has been a slew of buzz for older actors with twilight performances, such as Hal Holbrook for That Evening Sun, Christopher Plummer for The Last Station, and Robert DuVall for Get Low. Despite all of their pedigree (and in the cases of Holbrook and Plummer, the Academy may feel like they owe them), I don't see any of them cracking the shortlist. Though I wouldn't be surprised if any of them supplant Mortenson, who seems to be running on reputation alone when it comes to his buzz for The Road. The biggest addition here is Colin Firth, who won Best Actor at Venice for his performance in A Single Man, as a gay man mourning the death of his lover. As for adding Clooney to my list, see a previous post to understand how I came up with that inclusion.

Colin Firth and Julianne Moore involved in Oscar time = my wet dream

BEST ACTRESS

Abbie Cornish, BRIGHT STAR
Charlotte Gainsbourg, ANTICHRIST
Carey Mulligan, AN EDUCATION
Gabourey Sidibe, PRECIOUS
Audrey Tautou, COCO AVANT CHANEL

Nothing has really changed for me here, except for my feelings for Bright Star. Having actually seen the film, I can say matter-of-factly that Cornish is exceptional in the role, and Campion already has a reputation for guiding great performances from her actresses. I'm still standing behind Gainsbourg, even if Antichrist is completely anti-Oscar. Mulligan and Sidibe seem as close to locks as anything can be in October, and though I'm not sure many will see it, I still think Tautou has a great shot for Coco avant Chanel. I know it’s hard to vote against Meryl Streep in an Oscar race, but Julie & Julia just never seemed to be a role to take seriously. Forgive me, I can’t love her in everything just because everyone else does.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, THE MEN WHO STARE AT GOATS
Richard Kind, A SERIOUS MAN
Alfred Molina, AN EDUCATION
Stanley Tucci, THE LOVELY BONES
Christoph Waltz, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

Since his Best Actor win at Cannes, Christoph Waltz has received nothing but praise for his fabulous, whimsical, multi-lingual creation of Hans Landa within Inglourious Basterds. He seems safe, but everything else is tricky. Both Jeff Bridges and Alfred Molina are seldom recognized talents (of coarse, Molina much more than Bridges), and have very showy roles which always helps in this category. Stanley Tucci is a character actor everyone loves, and that the Academy will want to recognize for a serious role. As for Richard Kind, it’s my experience that this category always has one unforeseen performance (a la Michael Shannon last year in Revolutionary Road), and he’s said to very good in A Serious Man.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, NINE
Vera Farmiga, UP IN THE AIR
Mo’Nique, PRECIOUS
Julianne Moore, A SINGLE MAN
Susan Surandon, THE LOVELY BONES

This race has been mostly a one-woman show, with Mo’Nique hogging all the glory. Hopefully, the precursor awards will shake this up a little bit. Cotillard is said to have the best role in Nine, and the fact that she was very good in Public Enemies helps. Surandon hasn’t been recognized in a long time, and Farmiga hasn’t at all—in both cases, the Academy will feel like they owe them. Farmiga may have some in-movie competition, with Anna Kendrick’s performance getting particularly good notices, but Kendrick will probably have to wait, just like Vera did. Which leads me to Moore, who I’ll admit is more of wishful thinking than movie society wisdom. My favorite actor ever, someone who has always ended up on the short end of many Oscar nights, is in prime position for A Single Man. Oh God, I’m excited.

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, THE HURT LOCKER
Lee Daniels, PRECIOUS
Clint Eastwood, INVICTUS
Peter Jackson, THE LOVELY BONES
Spike Jonze, WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE

I’m not sure if Daniels will get much credit for Precious, since it may be seen as more of an actor’s film, but it’d seem silly to ignore him since the film has the most buzz. As for Eastwood, the Academy may feel the cold sweats since they didn’t nominate him last year (and he had two films, after all). Peter Jackson is returning with what looks like a visually striking film, so he has a good shot. Kathryn Bigelow has a very good shot at being the fourth woman ever nominated in this category, and deservedly so, since The Hurt Locker is certainly the biggest critics darling of the year. As for Jonze, his Where The Wild Things Are is getting all kinds of good notices, but it will have to be a big hit. He’s put a lot of effort into telling this story.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal, THE HURT LOCKER
Jane Campion, BRIGHT STAR
Scott Neudstadter & Michael H. Weber, 500 Days of Summer
Bob Peterson, UP
Quentin Tarantino, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Dave Eggers & Spike Jonze, WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE
Nick Hornby, AN EDUCATION
Peter Jackson & Fran Walsh, THE LOVELY BONES
Damien Paul, PRECIOUS
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, UP IN THE AIR

All in all, the screenplay awards are tough to put your finger on, because they are so often a regurgitation of Best Picture nominees mixed in with some surprises. I feel 500 Days and Inglourious Basterds can get recognition here (and should). As for everything else, you’ll notice that they have something in common with this next category.

Clooney and Kendrick packing up for some Oscar noms...

BEST PICTURE
An Education
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up In The Air
Where The Wild Things Are

I could be misguided in thinking that Wild Things will get so much attention, but I just feel that it really has the potential to be something special. My original skepticism that The Hurt Locker would get ignored has waned a bit, though I’m still worried. Except for the addition of Up In The Air (and it’s recent snowball of buzz), this list is still similar to ones people had in the middle of the summer. Hard to really make fine predictions now that the field is this wide, but I feel secure with this list. **I will admit that The Lovely Bones has been nothing but hype since its trailer release a few months ago. Could it be a Benjamin Button situation, where so many people say it’s good before they see it, that they allow their eyes to lie to them?

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Coraline
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo
Up

Not that it matters, since Up has been a lock ever since it came out in May, but the early word is that this category will have enough qualifying films to expand to five nominees. May be a stretch to say Fantastic Mr. Fox makes it over the very successful Monsters v. Aliens, but that’s only hoping that Wes Anderson’s endless charm translates to animation.

Here are my early thoughts on the technical awards:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Barry Ackroyd, THE HURT LOCKER
Lance Acord, WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE
Dian Beebe, NINE
Grieg Fraser, BRIGHT STAR
Andrew Lesnie, THE LOVELY BONES

BEST ART DIRECTION
John Myhre, NINE
Sarah Greenwood, SHERLOCK HOLMES
K.K. Barrett, WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE
David Hindle & Christian Huband, BRIGHT STAR
David Wasco, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

BEST FILM EDITING
Sally Menke, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Chris Innis & Bob Murawski, THE HURT LOCKER
Joel Cox & Gary Roach, INVICTUS
Joe Klotz, PRECIOUS
Claire Simpson & Wyatt Smith, NINE

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Janet Patterson, BRIGHT STAR
Coleen Atwood, NINE
Jenny Beaven, SHERLOCK HOLMES
Sandy Powell, THE YOUNG VICTORIA
Anna B. Sheppard, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

BEST SOUND EFFECTS/SOUND MIXING
**same thing, right?**
Avatar
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

BEST MAKE-UP
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
The Road
Star Trek

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Michael Giacchino, UP
Alexander Desplat, COCO AVANT CHANEL
Mark Bradshaw, BRIGHT STAR
James Horner, AVATAR
Elliot Goldenthal, PUBLIC ENEMIES

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
**After what happened with Bruce Springsteen last year, and the debacle that followed, I could care less about this category**

COMING SOON:
Capatalism: A Love Story
A Serious Man
Where The Wild Things Are