Monday, September 20, 2010

Post-Festival Oscar Predix

Now that both Venice and Toronto have closed up shop, we finally have a clearer picture of where we might be heading come Oscar-baiting time at the end of the year. With Sofia Coppola's Somewhere winning at Venice, many were surprised since Black Swan was getting all the best notices and Coppola's film getting nothing particularly positive in its reviews (in fact, many cried fowl saying that Jury Head Quentin Tarantino was picking favorites since he and Coppola used to have a romantic relationship). At the end of the Toronto fest, the Colin Firth-lead film The King's Speech won the big prize, the People's Choice Audience Award. It makes a lot of sense when you consider the film's high concept plot and period setting (both are crowd-pleasing, and therefore, Academy pleasing). So, now we're not totally shooting blind when we do our best to do Oscar nomination predictions. With mid-September upon us, here's what the Oscar forecast is looking like (in my opinion):

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, BIUTIFUL
Robert Duvall, GET LOW
Colin Firth, THE KING'S SPEECH
James Franco, 127 HOURS
Mark Wahlberg, THE FIGHTER

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Anne Hathaway, LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
Jennifer Lawrence, WINTER'S BONE
Natalie Portman, BLACK SWAN
Michelle Williams, BLUE VALENTINE

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, THE FIGHTER
Dustin Hoffman, BARNEY'S VERSION
Ed Harris, THE WAY BACK
Mark Ruffalo, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Geoffrey Rush, THE KING'S SPEECH

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, THE FIGHTER
Keira Knightley, NEVER LET ME GO
Lesley Manville, ANOTHER YEAR
Julianne Moore, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Miranda Richardson, MADE IN DAGENHAM

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, BLACK SWAN
Danny Boyle, 127 HOURS
David Fincher, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Mike Leigh, ANOTHER YEAR
Christopher Nolan, INCEPTION

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumber, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Andres Heinz and Mark Heyman & John McLaughlin, BLACK SWAN
Mike Leigh, ANOTHER YEAR
Christopher Nolan, INCEPTION
David Seidler, THE KING'S SPEECH

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Michael Arndt, TOY STORY 3
Simon Beaufoy & Danny Boyle, 127 HOURS
Alex Garland, NEVER LET ME GO
Debra Granik & Andrea Rosellini, WINTER'S BONE
Aaron Sorkin, THE SOCIAL NETWORK

BEST PICTURE
127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network
Toy Story 3

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins, TRUE GRIT
Matthew Libatique, BLACK SWAN
Anthony Dod Mantle & Enrique Chediak, 127 HOURS
Wally Pfister, INCEPTION
Martin Ruhe, THE AMERICAN

BEST ART DIRECTION
Stuart Craig, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS
Guy Dyas, INCEPTION
Jess Gonchor, TRUE GRIT
Kalina Ivanov, THE CONSPIRATOR
Eve Stewart, THE KING'S SPEECH

BEST EDITING
Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Jon Harris, 127 HOURS
Pamela Martin, THE FIGHTER
Lee Smith, INCEPTION
Andrew Weisblum, BLACK SWAN

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Coleen Atwood, ALICE IN WONDERLAND
Jenney Beavan, THE KING'S SPEECH
Louise Frogley, THE CONSPIRATOR
Janty Yates, ROBIN HOOD
Mary Zophres, TRUE GRIT

BEST SCORE
Carter Burwell, TRUE GRIT
Rachel Portman, NEVER LET ME GO
John Powell, HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
Gustavo Santaoalla, BIUTIFUL
Hans Zimmer, INCEPTION

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